Global Witness - Breaking the links between natural resources, conflict and corruption
Climate Change and Energy Security
View latest releases on climate change and energy security
Decreasing energy supplies and ever-increasing consumer demand have set the stage for a high risk future in which countries compete ever more aggressively for dwindling supplies of key sources of energy.
A world without enough oil is unlikely to be a peaceful place. Our near-total dependence on oil for food production and transport mean that decreasing availability is likely to lead to food shortages and increased geopolitical tension. It will threaten the nascent global governance reform agenda and could cause major international conflict over resources. The poorest will be pushed to the back of the queue and inequality will grow, which in turn will feed social unrest.
Governments and multi-lateral agencies have failed to publicly acknowledge the imminence and scale of the global oil supply crunch, and most of them remain completely unprepared for its consequences. Global Witness is calling on governments to officially acknowledge the crunch and to shift urgently into safe sustainable energy alternatives.
Read our report, Heads in the Sand: Governments ignore the oil supply crunch and threaten the climate, for an accessible analysis of the problem.
Four key underlying oil production factors
Four underlying factors combine to demonstrate that the world is facing an imminent oil supply crunch. Some of these factors have been apparent for many years.
1. Declining output: 1965 was the year in which the largest volume of oil was discovered. Since then, the trend in the number and average size of discoveries has been in decline.
2. Declining discoveries: In 1984 global conventional crude oil consumption exceeded the volume discovered, and the gap has continued to increase since then.
3. Increasing demand: Between 2005 and 2008 conventional oil production ceased to grow, despite massive investment, increasing demand and prices. This failure to increase conventional oil production, despite all the right incentives, is unprecedented in the history of the oil industry.
4. Lack of oil projects in the pipeline: By 2008 the annual drop in output from existing fields stood at 3.7 million barrels per day, which requires the same amount to be added every year just to keep the same level of output. This is the equivalent to more than one third of the entire output from Saudi Arabia.
Governments must act now
It is difficult to overstate the implications for the climate, not to mention global governance, food security, increased corruption, and potentially also outright conflict through an unsuccessful effort to sustain the existing global reliance on oil. The failure in Copenhagen to agree binding international targets to fight climate change has highlighted the need for governments to face up to their individual responsibilities to take action.
Director's comment on over-optimism in energy debate
Read Guardian article on Heads in the Sand
Latest Publications
September 2010
Global Witness stands by findings on Sudanese oil data
Global Witness today refuted claims that it had apologized for the findings of its September 2009 report, Fuelling Mistrust, on the lack of transparency in Sudan's oil sector. The organisation said that although very important commitments on improving transparency were made recently by the Government of National Unity (GoNU), the full disclosure of oil revenue data and the results of an independent audit remain necessary to prove the concerns were unfounded.
August 2010
Global Witness welcomes Norwegian government disinvestment from predatory loggers Samling
Global Witness welcomes the Norwegian Government Pension Fund's decision to disinvest from the notorious Malaysian timber giant Samling. Global Witness has previously exposed illegal logging by Samling in Cambodia as well as evidence of legal breaches by two Samling-associated companies in Liberia.
Global Witness welcomes new commitment to transparency in Sudan
Global Witness has participated in a landmark seminar on oil revenue transparency in Khartoum, organised by the Sudanese government and attended by foreign oil companies. We welcome the commitment to increase transparency, including an audit of the oil sector and publication of key production and revenue figures.
Global Witness applauds RBS penalty over terrorist financing
Global Witness welcomes the decisive action taken by the UK financial regulator, the FSA, which has fined the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) £5.6 million for failing to check whether its customers were on the UK terrorist sanctions list.
Campbell testimony shines light on blood diamonds and the importance of international justice
Global Witness is attending the trial of former Liberian President Charles Taylor in The Hague as supermodel Naomi Campbell is called to testify. The event offers a useful reminder of the role of natural resources in funding conflict, and of the importance of pursuing justice for the victims of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
